How Nuclear Energy Can Unlock Intergenerational Justice

If we truly want to invest in the well-being of future generations, nuclear energy may be the best choice.

Longtermism is the ethical view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time, arguing that “future people matter morally just as much as people alive today”.

There’s no such thing as a prosperous, low-energy society. To ensure that future generations enjoy the same, if not better, standards of living, clean energy is an essential foundation.

Taking moral responsibility for providing a clean, reliable energy supply for future generations means nuclear energy is one of the strongest contenders. As shown in Figure 1, the long-term value of nuclear energy becomes evident after capital investments are fully recovered, including loans and returns on debt and equity. While the initial 30-year levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranges from $50–150/MWh, the cost drops to just $30–35/MWh over the remaining 50 to 70 years of operation. In this calculation, lifetime extensions are included.

Figure 1 – The full value of a 100-year of nuclear energy. Adopted from U.S. DoE’s new report “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear”.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the long-term operation of nuclear power plants remains “one of the most cost-competitive options to generate low-carbon dispatchable electricity”.

Despite these promising prospects, why has nuclear energy—capable of providing clean, firm energy for a century—been largely overlooked for decades? The answer lies in short-term investment thinking. Cash flows far into the future are heavily discounted in today’s investment models. As shown in Figure 2, using a typical 8 % discount rate, energy generated by nuclear plants in 2050 is valued at just 13.5 % of its worth today. However, for people living in 2050, this same energy will be just as valuable as it is to us today.

Figure 2 – The net present value of a 100-year energy asset depending on the discount rate.

This thought experiment leads to a philosophical challenge. Energy investments are today predominantly evaluated based on the present-day net present value (NPV), which significantly discounts the value of energy assets for future generations. If we recalibrated our thinking to consider the future NPV from the perspective of future generations, the value of long-term clean assets like nuclear energy would be seen in a radically different light. Is it time to shift our energy investment paradigm from short-term gains to long-term sustainability?